A week has passed since the by-elections in Galas and Batu Sapi with Barisan Nasional (BN) prevailing in a double victory. The Umno and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) wins in the simultanious contests were signifant for BN for the ruling coalition was and still in much neede of regaining its confidence two years after  the political tsunami and especially seeing as the next general election is presumed to be just around the corner.

But looking back, the signs were all there to indicate that BN was going to to prevail over Pakatan Rakyat in the two eventful by-elections. For example, BN president and prime minister Datuk Seri Najib's Abdul Razak decision two hold the two by-elections simultaneously was a strategic one. This is simply because BN has more leaders than the Opposition making it easier for the former to divide and conquer.

Since BN’s dismal performance in the 2008 General Election, the Opposition managed to hold on to their growing popularity. In the beginning, for the most part, a large portion of the population were still speaking out against the ruling coalition by voting for Pakatan.

This is quite obvious as BN had been suffering defeats in almost all by-elections held since the last general election. Of all the seats that have been contested BN only managed to retain one seat which is the state seat of Batang Ai in April 2009. Due to this, BN didn’t even bother to place a candidate in the Penanti by-elections.  Their fear  worsened when they lost again in the Permatang Pasir seat three months later.

Last year BN have been slowly recovering from their losses in parliamentary seats, and the younger generation are slowly regaining their trust towards the long-serving coalition. The proof can be seen from the Manek Urai by-election where PAS only managed to get a 65 vote majority against BN. Three months later, Barisan Nasional won the Bagan Pinang seat with a whopping 5,435 majority.

Galas

The winning at Galas shows that the younger generations of voters are slowly returning to BN, despite their talks of dissatisfaction towards the government. It was a one on one contest between Umno's  Abdul Aziz Yusoff and PAS' Dr Zulkefli Mohamed with the former winning by a big majority of 1,190 votes.

It was the first victory for the BN in Kelantan and the peninsular after the by-election for the state seat of Manek Urai on July 14, last year. The victory in Kelantan also indicates that popularity among the people had prevailed over doctoral degree seeing as Abdul Aziz only holds an SPM academic qualification.

The result proves that Umno-BN has won over the hearts and minds of the Malay and Chinese voters in Galas which number had increased rather significantly. With the victory, BN now controls all the state assembly seats in the Gua Musang parliamentary constituencies which are Nenggiri, Paloh and Galas. The win also increased the number of state assembly seats held by the BN in Kelantan from six to seven.

Ku Li factor

You can't deny that Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah played a very important role in BN’s victory in Galas. The popular prince who is also the Member of Parliament for Gua Musang where the Galas seat is situated proves to be a favorite among the people of Kelantan including the Orang Asli there. 

According to a source from Malaysia Chronicle, Ku Li has been paying close attention to Galas since he found out that the assemblyman from PAS, Che Hashim Sulaiman had been diagnosed with cancer.  A strategic move though questionable in view of ethics.

Batu Sapi

In the Batu Sapi by-election, PBS candidate, Datin Linda Tsen Thau Lin of PBS-BN succeeded in getting 9,773 votes with a majority of 6,359 votes against SAPP candidate Datuk Yong Teck Lee, and PKR candidate Ansari Abdullah who only managed to get 2,031 and 3,414 votes respectively.

The total of voters in Batu Sapi is 25,582 which 15,099 of them are bumiputra Mulsims, 689 of them non-Muslim bumiputras, 9,797 of them Chinese and 57 of them which are of other races.

The winning factor of BN in this election here lies in Datin Linda’s late husband, incumbent MP Datuk Edmund Chong Ket Wah. The man was known to be a close ally of Sabah’s former Chief Minister, Tan Sri Datuk Seri Pairin Kitingan.

Chong has done a lot in Sabah and favored among the people there. Due to this, contesting his wife Tsen, who has been active in politics, as a candidate proved to be very successful.

Internal Conflict in PKR

The turmoil faced by Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) recently could also be the factor contributing to their loss. With the controversy surrounding the ongoing party election things have gotten from bad to worse especially now that Zaid Ibrahim is leaving the party in bad terms.

Zaid's rocky relationship with Anwar and Azmin was already beginning to surface during the by-elections and this was an added advantage for BN. The timing couldn't be better. Because of this, the campaigning by PKR did not contribute much in helping them gain votes.

Snap Polls

From the result of those two victories, rumor has it that a snap poll would be called soon. Analysts are sure that the winnings have boosted BN’s confidence level. However, some analysists say that just because BN won in the recent by-elections it does not mean they can generate the same result at national level.

Also, deputy prime minister, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin told all BN members not to be too complacent with the winnings as there is still much to do.

"This is just the beginning, and we must redouble our efforts to take advantage of our early success," said Muhyiddin.

This would be a reminder to all BN members to not lose focus or momentum as the Pakatan did in Galas and Batu Sapi.