The death of Datuk Sulaiman Taha, the Umno state assemblyman for Tenang, Johor due to complications from diabetes, has triggered the 14th by-election at the constituency. Many are of the view that this by-election will determine the direction of the next General Election (GE).

The dates have been set and Jan 22 and Jan 30 as the dates for nomination and polling, respectively. Since the 2008 GE, 10 out of 13 by-elections have been called was caused by the deaths of lawmakers and, from that 13, eight was won by Pakatan Rakyat. However, beginning in 2010, it seems that Barisan Nasional (BN) has regained their confidence where they managed to win three out of the last four by-elections that were held in Hulu Selangor, Sibu, Galas and Batu Sapi. Apart from the loss to DAP in Sibu, victory would seem to favor BN in the imminent by-election in the Umno stronghold of Tenang where the late Sulaiman had served for three terms.
 
In 2008, Sulaiman who was also the Umno Labis division chief beat his PAS opponent Mohd Saim Siran by a 2,492-vote majority – a smaller margin compared to 5,517 in 2004. The electorate size in the 2008 election was 14,511. Even though Tenang is Umno’s bastion, looking at the smaller margin in votes in the 2008 result, I think there is more work to be done by BN in order to regain their big majority.

Based on my observation from my first outing to Tenang last month, I can see that there are many weaknesses that need to be rectified by Segamat Umno. In my opinion, they (local Umno leaders) need to improve their PR skills because it seems like they are not a friendly bunch. Sorry to say, some of them were even rude to outsiders. This is my own firsthand experience.
 
Like I mentioned earlier, I went there last month to get a feel of the place before the by-election heat hit Tenang. Yes it’s too early, but the objective was to see the real situation there. If I was to go there when the election is just around the corner, things might be different and I could not see their real situation.
 
I went to one village there to interview the village head. As I arrived and introduced myself, I got pushed around with an array of questions coming from a man who introduced himself as “safety committee” I felt like an offender being interrogated by police. In my heart I wonder, who is actually the journalist? As a result, the interview only went on about 15 minutes as they were giving me the cold shoulder all throughout. Oh yeah, besides that, I was also prohibited from taking photographs.
 
Actually there are more stories about how arrogant the Segamat Umno posse was but I would rather keep it to myself for now. Well, what I can say is that to make an appointment with them is twice more difficult than making an appointment with ministers. Enough said.
 
I’m pretty sure that things might change now but I can guarantee that it will not last long. Reason? Well, since many of the national leaders will be there come election time, and the wide coverage from media, I’m pretty sure that they will be the nicest person in the world. Suddenly they will appear particularly concerned with the local problems for two weeks.  After that things will be back to normal. Trust me.
 
They might believe that Tenang is under control and victory is surely in their sight. I also believe that they will win the by-election but to say that they will increase their majority, I’m not sure. To me, if they continue with their gangsta attitude, they will definitely lose support from the younger generations.
 
Based from my conversations with several local people there, there is a trend where young people in Tenang are starting to lose confidence with Umno (specifically Segamat branch). From what the locals told me, young people are getting sick and tired of Segamat Umno with all their threatening of people to support them. I’m not making up story here. This is what they had told me. Besides that, in many years there is no change that was brought by Umno that had truly benefited people there.
 
What I can conclude here is if Umno wants to regain their big majority in Tenang which would be the first by-election to be held in Johor since the last GE, they should change their mentality and be more open to other people, locals and outsiders. Besides that, they also must be dedicated in fighting for the right of the people there.
 

 

* The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer.