It goes without saying that Selangor will to be the fiercest battleground for the coming general election with Barisan Nasional (BN) determined to recapture the country’s richest state. BN chairman, Prime Minister Najib Razak who has appointed himself as the coalition’s Selangor chief (he was previously BN’s Perak chief) has already declared ‘war’ when he called on the party’s machinery in the state to reclaim what was once its fortress “at all costs” and “with any weapon” during the BN convention last year. And with PKR equally hell-bent on retaining their precious ‘asset’, it’s bound to be one hell of a fight in the precious state. 

While Selangor BN is in the midst of repairing its flailing machinery (hence the closed-door convention), its rival Pakatan Rakyat too have problems of its own that requires rectification. For one, Selangor State Exco Hasan Ali may be out of PAS, but he is not completely out of the picture. Currently, Hasan, who is still influential among his many supporters, has embarked on a nationwide roadshow to expose what he calls “parasites” in PAS and this could prove damaging to Pakatan.

However, the more pressing problem would be the internal conflicts within PKR especially that between Mentri Besar Khalid Ibrahim and party deputy president and mentri besar wannabe Azmin Ali. The two can deny all they want about their animosity towards each other but it’s a dead giveaway when both refuse to sit next to each other at every party function. Azmin replacing Khalid as Selangor PKR chief was thought to be the height of the apparent rift between the two. Khalid, prior to that, had come under fire from party members, including Azmin, at an earlier Kota Bharu congress where the former was accused of not doing enough for the party.

However, the matter was made worse when Khalid, who had given his commitment to not take part in the controversial party election in 2010 and to focus instead on running the state, suddenly announced that he wants to contest for the party deputy president post. It was for a noble cause as he said his intention was to “balance the fight” which had turned “dirty” even during the nominations period. Though he did not name names, fingers were pointed at both Azmin and fellow contender Zaid Ibrahim who had been going at each other publicly. The mentri besar however pulled out of the race in the end but it’s just a matter of time before the daggers are out again.

It’s a pity for Khaslid. He manages the state like a CEO and it seems to be the only way he knows how to. However, he can’t be that bad as there have not been that many complaints from Selangoreans. After all, most of the criticisms made against him came from within Pakatan and PKR (and BN of course) itself rather than the people of Selangor. Sadly for Khalid, managing a state under a political party and running a company are two different ballgames. To survive in this ruthless game you have to be politically cunning, especially in PKR (where you have power-hungry Azmin on your ass).

Meanwhile, Selangor BN is not in any way free from political undercurrents of its own, especially after its image was dented by Khalid’s predecessor – former Selangor Umno chief Dr Mohamad Khir Toyo. Sources say there’s also an internal split among three factions in Umno and, according to one pro-opposition news portal, the party wants more seats, especially those held by MCA which is in a worse state than its Malay partner in terms of diminishing support.

On top of the rift over seat allocation, displeasure over unfair distribution of funds among BN parties has also emerged. Selangor MCA secretary Wong Koon Moo believes there’s a lack of effective fund distribution to BN component parties and this has hampered efforts to reach out to more people. Because of this he said there’s a need for fair and effective distribution of funds.

"If you have a good coordinator, then the funding will be equally distributed among all the components," Wong was quoted saying in a news portal.

Apparently, Wong is not alone in feeling this way. Other BN component leaders have claimed that in some of the constituencies where the BN had been defeated, there were meager or no allocations at all. Apparently, there were also allegations that some politicians from other component parties had asked their political colleagues to give up their seats since their chances were considered slim.

"If such is the mentality, how do you want those in the grassroots to reach out to the voters?," a BN component leader at a divisional level told a news portal.


Political Landscape

A pro-opposition news portal claimed that support for Pakatan in Selangor has not increased since 2008 and “with new suspicious names being added to the voters’ roll, it is increasingly looking like BN is going to win back Selangor”. The same article said that “ground and grassroots reports also indicate that fence-sitters have been won over by BN.”

There are 1.8 million voters in the state and BN needs 31 out of 56 seats to recapture the state.  Malays make up the majority of Selangor’s population (Malay 52.9%, Chinese 27.8%, Indian 13.3%, and other ethnic groups 6%) and since there are more rural than urban seats, a five percent vote swing by Malays to Umno will be enough for BN to reclaim the country’s most industrialized state. By now everyone knows that Pakatan is more popular in urban areas, however, it is not as confident in semi-urban and rural areas. Interestingly, according to the director of Merdeka Center, the number of first-time voters for GE13 is substantial due to extensive registration campaigns carried out by the political parties since 2008.
 
There are 10 state assembly seats – Bukit Melawati, Cempaka, Teluk Datuk, Sekinchan, Damansara, Ulu Kelang, Bukit Antarabangsa, Kota Anggerik, Lembah Jaya and Selat Kelang – where Pakatan won with less than a 10 percent majority in 2008. Meanwhile, there are eight parliamentary seats – Hulu Selangor, Kuala Selangor, Hulu Langat, Kuala Langat (all of which were won by less than 5% majority), Gombak, Ampang, Selayang and Kelana Jaya – where Pakatan won by less than 10 percent margin.

From the stats and the political atmosphere, it’s clear that PKR never had a firm grip on the state and their current grasp of the ‘shaky’ seats may prove to be temporary come GE13.


The Battle Has Begun

One pro-opposition news portal claimed that Umno has begun spreading “lies and propaganda” in the Malay rural heartland in the state. Apparently, according to grassroots reports, Umno have alleged that if Pakatan wins the election, DAP will “Christianize” the country and turn it into a republic. The other propaganda spread by the Umno campaigners is that PKR’s expose on the National Feedlot Corporation issue are all baseless. Whether these allegations are true or otherwise, this is could prove to be very potent way to persuade the rural Malays vote for (BN).

Both Najib and MB Khalid have been working hard making their rounds in the state. Last October, Najib made a mini tour around Pakatan-held constituencies. In Ijok (where Khalid won with less than 2,000 majority) he told Ladang Tuan Mee estate workers that they would see their pay rise by RM200 per month after “approaching every estate owner to increase their salaries. He also promised clean water and electricity. Khalid, meanwhile, was hot on Najib’s trail, arriving at Ijok two hours earlier.

After Ijok Najib repeated his spiel at Rawang and then Gombak, touching on the Budget (which he tabled the day before), the BR1M, RM100 to students and hikes in civil servant wages and pensions. Meanwhile, Khalid, targeted senior citizens (which he admits “are our weak link”) by handing out RM100 shopping vouchers to Ijok folks aged over 60, made his way to Gombak to repair the ‘damage’ done by Najib’s onslaught.

Another issue which has reemerged recently is the sand mining scandal involving the Selangor government. However, for some reason, BN has not done much to attack this issue even after Raja Petra Kamarudin did them a favor by opening a can of worms with his exposés on the state government’s wrongdoings in handing illegal sand mining activities.


The Stake Is High

A lot is at stake in this fight for Selangor. PKR would lose its credibility if fails to retain it. Without a state to call its own Anwar and his party will be more than hard done by. At this point, an inferiority complex won’t go down well with Anwar and he may have to do the unthinkable which is to make way for Mat Sabu or Guan Eng to be Pakatan leader. On the other hand, if BN fails to take back Selangor, not only will it look bad on Najib, future efforts to reclaim it will also be a lot harder and take longer.

BN has already proved that it has what it takes to get the job done after it recaptured Hulu Selangor in the April 2010 by-election. Though it was a close call, it was still convincing victory in the sense that a rookie (MIC’s P Kamalanathan) had defeated a former minister and then PKR Federal Territories chief Zaid Ibrahim. And bear in mind that the state PKR government also has in their disposal all the machinery which they had no access to in the 2008 general election.

Whatever it is, the most crucial issues to attack with the Selangor voters would be none other than inflation and corruption. Concerns over these issues are shared by all races in both urban and rural areas. As far as the Selangor voters are concerned, the party that is genuine about tackling the rising cost of living and white-collar thieveries would be the party that’s worthy of their votes.

*The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer.