This article analyzes the coming 13th General Elections (GE) in Malaysia with an objective of ascertaining the winning edge of the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) as compared to Pakatan Rakyat – the loose coalition of opposition parties being set up prior to the 12th GE in March 2008 – now in control of the Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Kelantan state governments.
This article argues that the BN under the leadership of Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Tun Razak since 2009 is in a position of strength to recapture these states. This optimism, however, is not unconditional. Instead, the BN will only able to exercise its fatal blow on the Pakatan if all its components are able to put aside their differences – particularly their political differences – and strive with a sincere commitment geared toward victory.
The BN Comradeship
The spirit of BN comradeship is crucial to the coalition’s victory in the 13th GE. As such, arise the questions of whether the non-Malay components of BN are really able to win back the hearts and minds of their members and hence contribute the BN’s success; is Umno as the backbone to BN in a really solid state of unity to spear this success; will the BN get back the support of the fence-sitters comprising mostly of voters in the public sector, including the army and the police; and has Najib Administration iron out most grievances of these categories on the rakyat?
The above will form the winning edge of the BN if Najib Administration of the ruling party and the nation is able to solve them prior to the 13th GE. Otherwise, they may dampen the chances really needed by the BN to normalize the stature and credibility it possessed in the pre-2008 GE era.
The Pakatan Puzzles
Today, it is perceived that the Pakatan is aggressive in its total war against the BN. But, the realities are, the Pakatan is also in total disarray, particularly due to the unending controversies concerning the moral integrity of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. This leads to the following puzzles. Firstly, will the voters, especially the Muslims and the Malays, choose to be with Anwar and his controversies and tainted integrity? Secondly, will Malaysians in general be very liberal-minded as to sacrifice moral integrity of the power to be and take Anwar as their prime leader to topple BN in the 13th GE? Lastly, will Malaysia be allowed to be led by an individual of such a character whereas integrity is the very foundation of a credible administration?
Conclusion
Malaysians cannot escape but seek answers to all the above. Thus, no matter how strong the BN is at this very moment, the management of its election syndromes is of importance to its victory; no matter how liberal-minded Malaysians are, the questions about Anwar’s integrity are not about liberalism – instead, they are about strategic decision to choose the future top leadership of Malaysia as a nation of Muslim and Malay majority; and no matter how optimistic the BN and the Pakatan are today, the ultimate single factor which decides the victory of either side is the voters’ choice – are they to religiously stick to democracy and integrity as the basis of their principles in electing their government or are they willing to sacrifice this basic principles to blatantly choose democracy with tainted integrity.
*Datuk Ruhanie Ahmad is a former Member of Parliament for Parit Sulong (1990-2004). The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer.
